By the Numbers

The Bad News: GChat #1 (A Workday Afternoon)

12:29 PM me: what if he is THE ONE and I let him go

  and then he finds someone else and I die alone

 Guy Friend: woah

  slow down

12:30 PM do you really believe that there is really and truly only one person in the entire world that can make you happy?

ONE out of what is quickly approaching 8 BILLION people

12:32 PM back of the napkin numbers

  assuming Men make up about 1/2 of the population

12:33 PM and assuming that about 20% of them are in a suitable age range (which is a small %)

  and assuming that gay men make up about 10% of the population

12:34 PM and we'll assume that only 1/3 of them are single at any given time

  and going by the calculated population of the US as 315M people

  you're STILL looking at 9,355,500 single suitably aged straight men

12:35 PM and that's ONLY out of US Citizens

  so if you want to look at your odds as 1/9.4Million

12:36 PM which happens to be 1.07x10^-7

  or 0.00001% of the dating pool

  then I simply cannot help you

12:37 PM me: those are super depressing numbers

12:38 PM Guy Friend: because frankly you are 12x MORE likely to be struck by lightning

  you even have a better chance of being struck by lightning TWICE

  (but just barely)

12:40 PM look at it this way

  look at your friends who are married and/or happily coupled

  do you really think that ALL those people are really THAT lucky?

  Millions upon millions of people would be getting struck by lightning on a daily basis if that were the case.

12:41 PM speaking from a position of probability

12:42 PM so have I sufficiently convinced you that statistically the possibility of there being only ONE person for every other person is basically an impossibility?

 me: yes

  which means I will die alone

The Good News: GChat #2 (The Next Day)

9:35 AM Guy Friend: what would you say a good "Ugliness" factor would be?

  40% of men being unattractive?

 me: well, you're talking to a person who can find something attractive in ANYONE

9:36 AM but it depends on what we're considering

  is it age?

  money?

  height?

  hygiene?

  fashion?

 Guy Friend: a combination of unattractive factors for an overall % of men that would be unacceptable

 me: hmmm ... 9:37 AM I guess 40% is right

  I'm going to take a survey of my office

9:41 AM there are 36 men in our office

  and 13 I might have sex with

  so yeah, almost 40%

9:42 AM Guy Friend: damn I was thinking a 40% exclusion rate

  not inclusion rate

9:44 AM ok so if you go on a blind date with someone who all you know is that they are male and between the ages of 25-45 you have a 12.7% chance of them being at least marginally compatible

  that's not knowing whether they are single, straight, or attractive

9:49 AM me: wait, why would I be going on a date with him if he weren't single?

9:50 AM and only a 12.7% of being compatible?!

  That sounds awful!!

9:51 AM your numbers are getting me all riled up

 Guy Friend: ok ok ok

9:52 AM so if you knew he was single and straight but had no idea what he looked like or what his other qualities were you would have a 40% chance of compatibility

  2 dates out of 5

  that's not terrible

 me: no, not terrible

9:53 AM Guy Friend: however, with dating sites you can weed out the ugly ones and for the most part the dumb ones

9:55 AM so we can make Boring/Dull/Uninspired at a factor of about 25% of men who are single, straight, and attractive

  and in your age range

9:56 AM me: okay10:03 AM Guy Friend: barring all those factors there are still over 4.3 Million men you are compatible with on some level in this country10:04 AM and using the same statistics there are over 115,000 compatible men in NYC10:05 AM me: wow Guy Friend: yeah10:06 AM and that's 30% of the single straight men in your age rangenot so hopeless after allso almost 1 in 3 Single straight men between the ages of 25-4510:13 AM me: but I don't want a man who is only 25what about between 30 and 40? Guy Friend: ugh, picky picky84,000